Rmb Appreciation On Chinas Import And Export Economics Essay

Rmb Appreciation On Chinas Import And Export Economics Essay Introduction Money is an important factor in peoples life. Similarly, the currency also plays a significant role for the countries economy , particularly for the import and export trade among the countries. The exchange rate is an important factor for economic balance adjustment in an open economy,the exchange rate policy not only can be used to adjust trade flow and trade balance,but also can be used to adjust the trade structure.Historically,the developing country normally use the depreciation currency as the competitive advangtage in the early stages of development.However, the exchange rate adjustment on the import and export trade is conditional,whether the change of exchange rate can affect trade or not which depend on rate transmission mechanism.China has been focusing on the role of the exchange since its reform and opening up,after several major exchange rate adjustments, exchange rate movements has been an important role to reverse the trade deficit and change the unfavorable situation of trade in china. In recent years,most of the countries were carrying on the exchange rate reform, adjusting the domestic currency on the foreign exchange rate, seeking some more development opportunities for the countrys economy and the import-export trade. As we know,Chinas currency-RMB plays a significant role in the worlds economy. On July 21, 2005, the Chinese government announced on the exchange rate system will be reformed, abolishes the exchange rate system which fixed on u.s. dollar, and implements the management floating exchange rate system. From October 31, 2007, the RMB changed exchange rate tagainst US dollar revalued from 8.1100 to 7.4692 at the same day which announcement of the reformation of exchange rate, until to the record low 6.7899 recently, RMB has experienced many transformations in the several years. At the same time, the RMB appreciation has also had many influences to chinese peoples normal life. For several years, people always discuss the advantages and disadvantages of exchange rate reformation, especially for the potential influence of the chinas import and export trade.,for example:textile,clothing,toys which is labor-intensive and meager profit. So far, exchange reform had been through more than two years, there was a lot of influence for each aspect of chinese economy caused by exchange reformation. This article will studies the reasons for the RMB appreciation and the development of chinas import and export trade, and discuss the influence and solution of RMB appreciation on chinas import and export trade. Chapter 1 The overview and relationship with the RMB appreciation and import and export trade The RMB appreciation,it means the Yuans exchange rate against foreign currencies has been decreased.In recent years,china has been through continuous adjustment of RMB exchange rate policy to stimulate the RMB appreciation.Meanwhile,on the whole world situation,the exchange rate of dollar against euro is also increase continuously,and other countries currency rate have also been adjusted during these years. Import and export trade is a business which different countries (and/or region)exchange different goods and services with each other.Import and export trade is the international transfer of goods and services.Import and export trade is composed by two parts of the import trade and exports trade.Import and export trade is a countrys trade method of external sales of domestic products and buy or exchange goods from and other countries.It is a necessary trade means between the different countries.The country can export the goods which have their own countries advantage,and import the goods from other countries that they do not have the production advantages,thus to achieve a equal supply and demand relationship When a countrys currency appreciate,this currencys position will be changed in the world market at same time.If one currency exchange rate has benn changed against with other countries currency, directly affects the trend of import and export trade between the two countries.then the export and import trade trends would be changed between the two countries,which making a direct change in the value of imports and exports between the two countries. When the currency appreciate,if the price of N unit commodity is N before,then the pirce is N+ or N- after the appreciation.Meanwhile, the number of import or export goods quantity is M in the past,corresponding to become M+ or M- now.It can be seen intuitively:the currency appreciation has caused the amount of currency and goods changed in a direct way during the import and export trade.As a price ratio between one currency and another currency,the influence of exchange rate appreciation or depreciation will be directly transmitted to the import and export of goods service and price,which will affect the size and growth rate of imports and exports. In general, the currency appreciation is conducive to expand import,inhibit the export;and the currency depreciation is conducive to increase exports,decrease imports. Because there are many factors can affect the volume and price on a countries import and export trade,for example,the major trade partners economic outlook,market demand and supply,financial and price situation,the national trade and investment policies(such as export tax rebates,interest rates,quota and license management, etc.)changes,and other supply or demand elasticity factors,therefore, short-term fluctuations of the exchange rates impact on exports and imports are usually not large.But if the exchange rate has changed to one direction in a long period, hen the impact on the export and import growth will be significantly demonstrated. The exchange rate are free floating in many countries.However,the most mature economies are ofter try to maintain their exchange rate stablely.If the exchange rate fluctuate too much,then it is difficult to control the costs in the transaction for importers and exporters,which is not good for import and export trade. In the past 20 years,Chinas RMB exchange rate have had a few adjustments,but has maintained stable generally,which has provided a good condition for the import and exports steady growth.In 1994,the first exchange rate reform has made RMB exchange rate back to a reasonable level.Since then,the government has implement a managed floating policy for RMB exchange rate,and floating direction is upward basically.In the middle of 1995, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated nearly 4.5 percentage, and Chinas imports and exports trade has grew rapidly during these period,exports began to appear large surplus.After the Asian financial crisis 1997,because the Chinese government promised RMB would not depreciate,the RMB has appreciated at least 15% against a basket of currencies.By the influence of financial crisis and the real exchange rate appreciation,Chinas export growth rate has decreased a lot,and trade surplus reduce at the same period.Since then,the RMB began to lock on U.S doll ar for a long term.After 2002, Chinas imports and exports began to grow again.Throughout these 20 years,we can find that whenever there was a substantial change in the exchange rate,import and export growth rate will appear a significant growth or slow down in this period.However, Chinas import and export has grew rapidly,especially in the last six years,and the growth are mainly depend on some factors such as the internal and external markets demand and supply,industrial transfer and progress, the competitiveness promotion and foreign trade policy and institutional.Some Chinese and other countries scholars have used several mathematical models to analysis the influence of RMB appreciation on Chinas import and export of,although they obtained different data results,but most think that there is a certain relevance between RMB real exchange rate fluctuations and import and export trade.When the appreciation and depreciation rate is lower than 5%,the impact of the exchange rate on expo rts and imports is not significant.But appreciation or depreciation arte of RMB is large,the effect will be large relatively.Impact range is generally 1:0.5-0.8.[1] In other words, the RMB revaluate 10 percent,export growth rate should slow down 5-8 percent by this appreciation effect,and imports growth rate should speed up 5-8 percentage points in general. According to the experience of several changes in the nominal exchange rate and real exchange in the past years in china,and consider the effects of supply and demands elasticity is very low for Chinas import and export commodities,a greater proportion of processing trade,the obvious advantage of industry concentration degree,the level of productivity and management continued to improve,the export advantage product still have much price space to negotiate and other factors,the write estimates the actual impact of RMB appreciation levels (factor) on export and import might be lower, should be in the range 1:0.3-0.4,which means if RMB appreciate every 10 percent,and export growth rate will be slow down by 3-4 percentage points by this effect,the growth rate of imports in should speed up 3-4% in general. Chapter 2 The influence of RMB Appreciation on Chinas Import and Export Growth The influence of exchange rate movements on export trade is mainly through the price adjustment mechanism conduction, but there are the many factors can effect this mechanism transmission.In china,the processing trade is always after imports raw material and machinery equipment,which produced in China again and then re-export, therefore, there is a large proportion of import raw materials in the processing trade, and this is also because the current stage of economic development caused in china.But with the upgrading of industrial structure in China and the rapid development of basic industries, the needs of raw materials in export products,components and semi-finished products will be produced by more chinese domestic manufacturers, and the adjustment of the exchange rate will also have some expansion effect on the export trade.The impact of currency appreciation on exports are: When the production of export goods are produced by their own countrys raw materials and the situation of the currency is devaluating in domestic country, the currency exchange rate appreciation would significantly increase the price of export commodities, resulting in reduced export;if the value of currency is stable in domestic country, the currency appreciation would lead to increasing the price of the foreign currency of export commodities, resulting in reduced the amount of the exports goods;but if the value of domestic currency appreciate,wthether the export price of foreign currency rise or not,and the scope size of rise are caused by both of the rate of domestic currency appreciation which make the local price of exports goods decrease, and the range of rising of foreign currency import prices as the appreciation domestic currency,.If the former is larger than the latter, then the exports will increase; if the former is equal to the latter, then there is no affect on export; if the former is lower than the latter, the amount of export good will be reduced.However,When the raw m aterials of production come from overseas, the relationship between the impact of currency appreciation on exports and the proportion of imports raw materials in export production is inversely,if the proportion is large, then the effect of reducing export caused by exchange rate appreciation will be small,vice versa. Since chinas exchange rate mechanism has reformed on 21 July 2005, the exchange rate of RMB has appreciated cumulatively 11.4% to U.S. dollar, 8.2% to the euro, 9.7% against the Japanese Yen,and appreciated 11.5% to the Hong Kong dollar until 15 November 2007. If according to the weighted average of the amount of Chinas foreign trade, then the appreciation of weighted RMB exchange rate is probably 6.1%,and the annual appreciation rate is less than 3%. So far, under the situation which RMB has not appreciated too much,there is no big fluctuation for Chinas import and export.The author has collected the quarter of import and export data form 2005 to 2007,(see table below). In 2006, Chinas total exports grew 27.2% than the previous year, and the rate of growth has dropped 1.2% against 2005; the amount of import grew 20.0%,and rate of growth increased 2.4 than previous year,respectively.From January to October in 2007,Chinas export grew 26.5%, almost the same as last year; and the imports grew 19.8% which dropped 1.1% compared to the same period last year. The main reason of recession of export speed-up against the previous two years is that the Chinese government has increased the resource tax for the part of resources export commodities, adjusted tax reimbursement for export and policy of processing trade,.as both of the Chinese domestic investment demand and the prices of resource imports products has improved, so there was a sligh t increase in the import growth rate. Quarterly growth of import and export since RMB appreciation Unit:100 million U.S. dollars Month Export Import Amount Compared to the same period last year Amount Compared to the same period last year Third Quarter 2007 2040.5 29.1 1753.1 19.6 Fourth Quarter 2007 2156.4 21.7 1821.2 22.2 First Quarter 2008 1972.7 26.6 1739.4 24.8 Second Quarter 2008 2313.5 24.1 1933.9 18.4 Third Quarter 2008 2627.5 28.8 2140.2 22.1 Fourth Quarter 2008 2780.8 29.0 2103.3 15.5 First Quarter 2009 2520.1 27.7 2056.4 18.2 Second Quarter 2009 2946.6 27.4 2285.6 18.2 Third Quarter 2009 3315.6 26.2 2583.4 20.7 Fourth Quarter 2009 3612.3 29.2 2681.7 27.5 Data source: Customs statistics According to the different countrys which do international trade with china,except the growth rate of export to Japan has been sluggish in recent years, the exports trade from China to European Union United States, Hong Kong and other staple market grows strongly,and imports trade grows steady. According to the customs statistics from January to September in 2009,the export growth rate from China to EU and ASEAN grows fast which is more than 30% in the top 5 largest trading partners, and is 10%,15% and 20% higher than to Hong Kong, the United States and Japan,respectively, In addition to strong economic growth in the EU and the ASEAN,it is also because RMB appreciated not too much against the EURO,obviously. Meanwhile,there is no big difference of imports growth rate for the countries which import production from china these years, shows that the impact for import of these countries from china is limited caused by RMB appreciation.Overall, if we can take out other factors, the influe nce of small RMB appreciation on the import and export can be ignored. From January to September 2009, the trade between China and other main countries Unit:100 million U.S. dollars National or Regional Export Growth ¼Ã‹â€ % ¼Ã¢â‚¬ ° Import Growth ¼Ã‹â€ % ¼Ã¢â‚¬ ° European Union 1755.2 30.8 806.2 21.7 United States 1699.9 15.8 513.7 15.1 Japan 739.8 11.1 979.6 16.3 ASEAN 674.8 31.7 790.5 21.5 Hong Kong,China 1322.2 21.6 92.3 15.6 Data source: Customs statistics According to the report from import and export enterprises,although they may feel some pressure from small appreciation of RMB, but generally the customer would consider a certain of RMB appreciation factors when they sign for the export contracts.They still concerned more about market trends and export tax rebates, and other policy changes.However,the import enterprises feel that there is not too much stimulation for imports on the small RMB appreciation,which is so small influence compared to the change of real price of imported goods. If the RMB exchange rate continued to appreciate slowly,the total impact on Chinas export and import growth will be still limited. First of all,the world economy continues to grow steadily,the investment and consumption are still hot in China,both of the domestic demand and external demand of china are quite strong which influence Chinese economy much more than the changes of RMB exchange rate; Secondly,the processing occupies nearly half proportion of Import and Export, and this part of imports and exports does not effected by the exchange rate changes; Third, enterprise and market has prepared to take the pressure from RMB appreciation;Fourth, the improve of industrial technology and labor productivity could be offset some influence on the RMB appreciation, making the export cost do not rise quickly;Fifth, China has the comprehensive competitiveness which could make the processing export industry can not be replaced easily by other countries in the short period, and making china al so has the pricing power in some kind s of the export products. Under some market pressures,if exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciate more than 10% in the end of 2010,and trade-weighted exchange rate increased over 15% at the same time,then there will be a significant impact on chinas exports and imports,and it will be difficult for Chinese company to export some low value-added goods or some exports products which depend on low-cost competition,but the competitiveness of imported goods would be increased.In this regard, every import and export company concern about exchange rate. According to the data(coefficient) of change of RMB exchange rate which has been calculated above, the growth rate of import may be 3% to 5% higher than in 2008 and 2009,but the growth rate of exports may be 4% to 6% lower than in 2008 and 2009.Foreign trade on GDP growth,and the pulling effect of foreign trade on GDP growth from will be under a certain influence,but this effect will be still under an affordable range.Unless the major turmoil or crisis occurs again,or there will not appear the situation which the amount of export decrease sharply like in 1998s Asian financial crisis . In the long run,through the transmission and regulation of prices,RMB appreciation will cause different influence on the growth rate of import and export, commodity structure,trade patterns and the trade-related investment in China. 2.1 The beneficial effect of of RMB appreciation on foreign trade growth Firstly,The RMB appreciation can improve the trade conditions. With the trade surplus increase rapidly, Chinas terms of trade are deteriorating in recent years. A survey report from Commerce Department shows that from 1998 to 2008 the overall terms of trade index of china has decreased by 13% as the 2003 is base period. Which terms of trade of manufacture fell by 14%, primary products decreased by 2%.The export price index and imported goods price index are 104.7 ,109.7 in 2008,respectively.Terms of trade index is 95.4% in 2008 which is lower than 98.8% in 2007.This means that the rate of Chinas export prices of import prices is falling, so china must export more goods as to exchange for the same amount of imported goods,and loss national welfare during the foreign trade.In recent years, Chinese government leads the investment in fixed assets always staying at a high level. The proportion of Imported energy and raw materials, primary products,high-tech chemical products, machinery an d transport equipment, manufactured goods increased sharply.Recent years, the unit dollar price of most of the primary products,capital,and technology-intensive products have increased a lot.From 1998 to 2008, the import price index rose by 19%, which manufactures increased by 20%, primary products increased by 16% in China. Meanwhile,the rapidl development of Chinese economy has led import demand increase fast,and caused the price of international material and technology-intensive products rise,further caused the term of trade worse. RMB appreciation will lower prices of imported goods,especially lower the price of raw materials and high-tech equipment,then companies will introduce the technology faster,improve production efficiency, carry on more product replacement and achieve products upgrade quicker than before.At the same time, because most imports will used to be re-exported,and with the improve of enterprise productivity and export product quality,it is helpful for extending the Chinese enterprises from low-end products chain to high-end chain,improving the terms of trade simultaneously. This will help chinas enterprise using world resource better and increase the national welfare.Overall,it will enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese products. Secondly,the RMB appreciation can optimize the commodity structure of foreign trade. At present, Chinas trade structure is very irrational, most of enterprises are labor-intensive and with low technology, the only port of high-tech and deep processed export products are still have some short processing and low value-added problems, and real high-tech equipment and intermediate inputs are still imported from other countries, and nearly 80% of profit not belong to the chinas re-produced enterprise.However,The RMB appreciation would reduce the cost of enterprises independent development,promote the technological upgrading indirectly,enhance their core competitiveness, thus accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading, promote export structure adjustment. Thirdly,RMB appreciation will increase the wages of worker,which will make it easier for attracting high-tech employee.under the independent innovation and technological promotion in China,the foreign entrepreneur will choose to invest high tech industry first, so that Chinas industrial structure and export commodity structure will be optimized.The next point is that the RMB appreciation will help Chinese enterprises for promoting the oversea investment.As the enterprise must use the local currency so that they can invest in other countries,so RMB appreciation reduces the cost of oversea investment significantly, and enhance the enterprises international purchasing power and foreign investment capacity, create the condition for those enterprises who wants to develop their business. Finally,RMB appreciation will make service industry and service trade develop better,then the low value-added,poor management,and low efficiency enterprise would be kicked out effectively.It also change the situation which industry (mainly the second industry) aggregate most of the resources, , thus contributing to change Chinas industrial structure to service industry easily and promote service industry develop rapidly,then make coordinated development of service trade and merchandise trade come to ture,and improve the competitiveness of whole country in the end.  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   2.2 The adverse effects of of RMB appreciation on foreign trade growth RMB appreciation, it means the amount of Yuan exchanged form U.S. dollar will be less and less, then for the exporter,it is the same theory that the amount of Yuan exchanged from one U.S. dollar goods is less than before because of RMB appreciation.Therefore, there will be a certaion influence on the profits of exporter. If from importers angle,the amount of Yuan to purchase one U.S. dollar goods is decreasing,so the cost of imports drop, and profits rise. However,because industry and cost structure are different,we need to distinguish the adverse impacts of RMB appreciation on different export enterprises.The growth of resource commodities, part of the staple agricultural products and low value-added manufactured exports slow down or even fall,there would be some adverse effects on the income for export agricultural farmers and part of low-skilled workers.Some large-scale complete sets of equipment needs 5-10 years from contract to delivery,and the payment time may be longer.If the RMB maintain appreciation trend in a long-term,it is difficult for enterprise to predict the long-term exchange rate,however the financial institution only provide foreign exchange hedging instrument in one year generally,so the enterprise has to undertake more exchange rate risks and avoid risks. There is a fundamental negative impact of RMB appreciation on textile export. Textile products have been the number one of Chinas exports for a long time.Until 2005, textile trade surplus is still higher than the entire foreign trade surplus.The textile industry has always been the backbone of chinas export trade,industry export dependence up to 50%.However,most of the textile exports are based on low labor cost and price advantage,the profit margins is not high. According to the calculations from Chinas first textile website, if RMB appreciate 1%, the then the amount of textile industry sales would fall 2% to 6%.From January to October 2006,the overall profit margin of Chinas textile exports is 3.9%, if the speculation was right, then 5% of appreciation of RMB,and the textile industry profit margins will drop 10% at least. Therefore, if RMB appreciate more than 10%, it will cause an obviously impact on textile industry.However, some low-tech enterprises will quit this industry under this low profit export siutation, forcing the textile companies to enhance the added value of products,construct brand concept, improve their core competitiveness.In the long run, in order to improve Chinas textile industrys competitiveness in the international market,Chinese government must catching this good opportunity of good economy development trend in china,using the large amount of international surplus,and start the structural adjustment in the textile industry. The growth of most raw material products export will be slowed.The majority of chinas raw materials export products have less competitive in price,and has strong dependence on the exchange rate.For example, paper, cotton, ferrous metal(steel, crude steel, manganese,etc.), aluminum,lignin ornament and so on.RMB appreciation will make these primary products, raw materials products exports growth to slow down,also have a negative impact on economic growth in the short-term.RMB appreciation will also reduce the amount of export of crude oil, refined oil, timber, copper, gold and other resource-based goods,then it will cause the rate of unemployment and the banks bad debts increase,and other related effect. [5] Because china do not have too much resource which normally used in high energy and high-polluting industries. The excessive export of resource products will increase intense contradictions in using coal and gas in a short time.It will increase the pressure of environment and resour ce, which is not good for the sustainable development of economy in the long-term. The electrical appliance industry will suffer lots of loss for export.Chinas electrical appliances has the Comparative advantage due to the relatively low-cost,so that China has become an important production base for the home appliances giants.Sales of appliances industry is mainly depend on the international market,and export has become a major demand source for household appliances industry.The RMB appreciation a tremendous negative impact on the electrical appliances products export,cause its low profit margins drops further. If the exchange rate of the Yuan appreciate rapidly,then the impact on export and import growth may not be so mild. First, the export growth rate may result in significant downturn,then there will be big shock not only for the resource,low price and the low value-added goods, but also for the whole export processing industry.Secon,it possible to stimulates the large quantities of goods imported, impact the chinas domestic markets and cause a certain deflation. Finally,it will be the psychological effect on people from the impact of trade.The production cost will transfer to the price on the international market,so the exchange rate appreciation will not affect too much for this kind of products profits.The appreciation of the RMB increase the international enterprises cost in china,but these enterprises have relative cost advantage in the international market,which has the minimal impact on the international traders profit. However,the normal people will think that the price of made in china has increased a lot as the appreciation of RMB,and the business people will think that they could not earn much money from china imported products,thus it will cause real adverse effects for Chinese exports. Chapter 3 The marco countermeasure of RMB Appreciation on Import and Export 3.1 The adjustment of marco financial policy about RMB appreciation Firstly,Chinese government should expand the government expenditure and promote pull effect of chinas domestic demand on economic development.In recent years,due to the investment scale on iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, real estate has grew fast,and has caused the price of upstream products and raw materials rose too high,for instance,the price of electricity, oil and transportation has became extremely high. Although the investment is better than the consume for economic growth,but in the composition of chinas domestic demand that investment must be under control.Therefore,the stimulating domestic demand policy should be focus on consumption.But the income gap between the rich people and poor people in china which make many people can not afford some consumption even they want to consume. Since that it is difficult for the common people to consume more in short run, therefore,the important task of expanding domestic demand should be taken by Government.Since a long t ime, why the Chinas consumption is always weak,not only because government consumption expenditure is not high,but also because social security system does not work very well for the consumers.Therefore,china must reform their public finance expenditure patterns,under the situation which the whole social investment is overheat,the financial expenditure should be changed from investment to consumption,and the financial expenditure should withdraw from the competitive field of investment as soon as possible,then put more financial resource on the public goods.Therefore,the writer think the public expenditure should be invested in the following key areas:First,the manufacturing industry which can support development of the economy for a long time;Second, increase the government financial expenditure on health systerm,old-age pension and social security welfare,in order to reduce the peoples long-term financial budget and saving,then they can expand their consumption;Third,the governmen t should decrease the farmers burdens and handle the problem of agriculture,farmer and rural area well. Secondly,china must adjust the consumption tax,reduce the export tax rebate rate and the trade surplus.At present,China is still in economic transition,there is still a large gap between china and other developed countries,and social security level is still very low.Meanwhile, because the economic opening time is short which is only more than 30 years,the influence of traditional culture on enterprise and consumer is still large,and the relationship between investment and consumption is quite conservative,an

Clausewitz in the 21st Century Essay

The work of Carl von Clausewitz continues to bring about heated debate in the 21st Century. While many scholars see Clausewitz’s On War as an indispensible military thought in the modern times, others view it as an obsolete or morally repellent argument for unlimited, unrestrained and brutal warfare. [1] Notwithstanding the opposition of present times, this renowned work is considered incomplete and its lack of prescriptive contents has subjected it to interpretations and discourses. Facing this encumbrance, the study of On War has to go beyond textual analysis to an appreciation of the historical context which influenced the author’s thinking and the evolution of the book over time. Fortunately, with the enduring efforts of numerous historians, we now know that Clausewitz’s experiences in the Napoleonic Wars and his study in the age of Frederick the Great (and beyond) allowed him to create a unified, all encompassing theory of war. [2] To date, much literature has been written to attest to the relevance of Clausewitz’s theories in modern warfare and assert the timelessness of On War. This paper examines the insights gained from the great studies on Clausewitz’s works and re-confirm the continued relevance of his theories by: (1) identifying the character of 21st Century warfare, followed by (2) an interpretation of Clausewitz’s theories and his underlying thinking, and finally (3) examining the relevance of the theories concerned and determine how they can be applied in the 21st Century. The 21st Century Warfare The character of warfare has evolved since the passing of Carl von Clausewitz 180 years ago. The likelihood of massive clashes between onventional forces seems to be diminishing and the world has seen the dawn of non-state actors challenging established states with asymmetric warfare[4] techniques. William Lind aptly chronicled the evolution of warfare in four generations, which began with the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. He described present day warfare as fourth-generation warfare (4GW) that is characterized by a universal crisis of legitimacy of the state, where militaries had to fight against threats that are transnational in nature and are very difficult to deal with. 5] The capabilities of these threat entities stem from the effects of globalisation that have enabled further, faster, deeper and cheaper means to reach around the world. [6] In addition to the physical reach, today’s information technology has also brought about various modern communication avenues that allow collaboration and ready access to information. Consequently, this also allowed rapid access to media pipelines enabling belligerents to exploit them to further their cause. These have bestowed transnational terrorist organisations such as Al-Qaeda, and the more sophisticated Hezbollah[7], with the abilities to acquire equipment, knowledge and instruments that rival those of the traditional state to wage wars. According to Lind, 4GW also brings together the relevance of mass firepower dominated by artillery in the second-generation warfare and manoeuvre concepts of third-generation warfare, making it more complex than ever before. Therefore, we can conclude at this point that 21st Century strategists and war-fighters have to contend with both conventional threats from traditional states and unconventional threats from non-state actors, both whom are capable of waging wars. Intricacies of Clausewitz’s Work To grasp how Clausewitz’s theories can be applied in 4GW, it is necessary to decipher the underlying thinking of the author’s work. Many of Clausewitz’s theories articulated in On War are remarkably well integrated despite the fact that On War is an unfinished book. Without going into details, this can be illustrated using Clausewitz’s famous paradoxical trinity. The constructs of the trinity comprises three interrelated components of war, namely â€Å"the commander and his army†, â€Å"the people† and â€Å"the government. †[8] Clausewitz connected each of these human actors to three sets of forces: (1) The commander and his army are paired mainly with non-rational forces of riction, chance and probability, (2) the people are paired mainly with irrational forces that refers to the emotions of primordial violence, hatred and enmity, and (3) the government, which is less of a concern in this paper, is paired mainly with the rational force of calculation and reasoning. [9] As illustrated, Clausewitz has unified many ideas and concepts he developed over the period of study in his own youth and middle age. The following discussion will examine the specific ideas and theories concerned. The Irrational Elements Irrational forces† is one of the three forces that were interpreted by Bassford to provide a symmetrical representation of dominant tendencies in Clausewitz’s trinity. [10] While the three sets of forces were paired with each component of the trinity, it must be stressed that Clausewitz actually used the word â€Å"mehr†¦zugewendet† in his original German manuscript, which means â€Å"mainly,† in the associations. [11] Thus, it is clear that the author did not rule out that any one of the forces can be present in all components to some variable extent, and that this is the reason behind dialectical relationships between components. Indeed, looking at the real world, military men and politicians are also members of â€Å"the people,† given that they may belong to different parts of society. In that sense, irrational forces are linked to all human actors and therefore its dominant beliefs will provide the fuel for political decisions[12]. This in turn may shape the outcome of a military campaign, which is consequential based on Clausewitz’s argument that â€Å"war is an instrument of policy. † In his book, Clausewitz contended that the â€Å"[population is] an integral element among the factors at work in war†[13] and conceived the idea of â€Å"People’s War,† defining it as a state-sponsored insurrection by armed civilians against an invader in support of action by army and the regular forces of allies. [14] This phenomenon was observed during the Napoleonic period where enormous armies that were raised using conscripts led to overwhelmed defending states to adopt â€Å"another means of war† by arming their people. 15] When a state has to wage a People’s War, the significance of irrational forces heightens and the interplay amongst the three components of Clausewitz’s trinity become more distinct. In the light of this discussion, it implies that the irrational elements in war can be referred to both the human actors of Clausewitz’s trinity, predominantly â€Å"the people†, and also, what Clausewitz called it, the â⠂¬Å"blind natural force† of primordial violence, hatred and enmity. [16] Friction, Chance and Uncertainty The concepts of chance, uncertainty and friction can hardly be examined independent of each other. When Clausewitz himself introduced friction, he brought in chance as the key subject to friction in war: â€Å"This tremendous friction cannot†¦be reduced to a few points, is everywhere in contact with chance, and brings about effects that cannot be measured, just because they are largely due to chance. †[17] For Clausewitz, friction is neither extrinsic nor abnormal[18]; it is the reflection of the effects in the real world. Friction can be generation internally within the military â€Å"machine†[19], as in physics, and externally by the collision of two opposing armies. [20] Thus with the concept of friction, Clausewitz conveyed that one can never fully anticipate how the battle will unfold, and it is only through a good military system and the strong will of the commander that friction in war can be counteracted. [21] Throughout On War, apart from Clausewitz’s pervasive mention of chance, its definition can nowhere be found. Beyerchen aptly brought in the three forms of chance conceived by the late nineteenth-century mathematician, Henri Poincare, to explain Clausewitz’s interpretation of chance. The first form is a statistical random phenomenon whereby Clausewitz referred to the role of possibility in a commander’s assessment. While some statistical analysis can be used, this form of chance requires the judgment of an experienced commander in war. The second form is the amplification of a microcause, where Poincare explained on a system point of view that certain deterministic system can cause disproportionately large effects at later time. Clausewitz work has embedded this idea in his very articulation on uncertainty and friction where the various contact of chance at the micro level, which may be concealed, can develop and produce effects at the macro level. The third form is the function of analytical blindness which is a result of simplifying the real world phenomena by people and making war seems like a linear concept instead of a complex and nonlinear state of affairs[22]. With all the complexities involved, Clausewitz stressed that the play of chance goes beyond the commander’s simple calculation of probability to a need for an intuition that allows him to exploit chance to his advantage. Culmination of the Attack Clausewitz defined culminating point of the attack as â€Å"the point where [the attacker’s] remaining strength is just enough to maintain a defence and wait for peace. † Moving beyond that point exposes the attacker to counterattack from the enemy â€Å"with a force that is usually much stronger than that of the original attack. [23] According to Clausewitz, losses will usually be greater than the gains in an attack. As the army advanced, its lines of communication will be stretched, forces will be pulled aside to control areas and other situations may be developed which will turn against the attacker. [24] As a result, the attacker has to stop at some point to rest and adopt a defensive posture for a period of time before proceeding. This is the point where the commander has to decide and exercise his imagination, as Clausewitz concluded, â€Å"what matters therefore is to detect the culminating point with discriminative judgement. †[25] Center of Gravity Antulio J. Echevarria II, a lieutenant colonel in the U. S. Army, observed that center of gravity (CoG) appeared more than fifty times in On War, and explained Clausewitz’s conceptualization of the centre of gravity as being based on mechanical sciences, just as he had conceived his theory on friction. [26] Clausewitz described CoG as a focal point, â€Å"the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends. †[27] By this, which is often misunderstood, he does not mean that the CoG is the source of power. In fact, it is the centralizing function that holds power system together, and in some cases give them purpose and direction. Clausewitz qualified that CoG is valid only when the enemy, â€Å"whether a single state or an alliance of states, have a certain unity and therefore some cohesion. †[29] When the enemy’s CoG is identified, Clausewitz advocates that all â€Å"energies should be directed† at this point to defeat the enemy. [30] Relevance of Clausewitz’s Theories in the 21st Century Thus far, the paper has briefly built a foundational understanding on present day warfare and some of Clausewitz’s brilliant ideas. Already it is quite obvious that many of Clausewitz’s thoughts still stand in present day context and are potentially applicable in 4GW. This proposition is contrary to what many critics have suggested; On War as bloodthirsty, misguided and obsolete. [31] These comments can easily be dispelled because they are often made on the superficial understanding that went little beyond the textual analysis of the book, and often built upon erroneous readings from others. Nevertheless, the fact remains that On War was written almost two centuries ago where the political, social, economic and technological evolutions of today could not be foreseen by Clausewitz. Therefore, in order to render Clausewitz his deserved place in the today’s modern age of technology, the following discussion on his ideas and concepts will not be critical towards the material changes in the 21st Century. Significance of Irrational Elements in 4GW It is axiomatic that conflicts nation-states engage in today relate closely the effects from irrational elements. Following the September 11 attacks, the world saw invasions into Afghanistan in 2001 followed by Iraq in 2003 by coalition forces. In the case of Operation Enduring Freedom (the war in Afghanistan), the cause of war stemmed from worldwide public uproar and support to root-out terror. Given the mandate by the people, the governments gain legitimacy and political will to commit their armed forces to the enduring global war on terror (GWOT). On the other hand, Operation Iraqi Freedom presented a case of â€Å"unconvincing† invasion of Iraq. As seen from how the operation unfolded, the war lost its popularity amongst the populace due to controversies that were presented as a result of the prolonged and seemingly unending war. Pressures began to be exerted by the public on their governments to draw down their armed forces’ involvement. After three years of coalition occupation in Iraq, it was found that majority of the British and Canadian people believed that the war in Iraq was unjustified. [32] A poll conducted on by the BBC World Service in January 2007 had also shown that 73% of the world population was against the handling of the Iraq War by the U. S. [33] It is thus arguable that the large-scale withdrawal of coalition forces which followed in 2009 was largely a result of public disapproval. Therein, it aptly demonstrated the significance of irrational elements, even in the context of the GWOT. Another noteworthy case in the GWOT will be the utility of â€Å"force† by terrorists. Their strategy resembles the â€Å"People’s War† which Clausewitz described. Despite being technologically and numerically inferior, Taliban operatives in Afghanistan are able to capitalize on the people, the natives of the land, to solicit like-mindedness through provocation and propaganda of the deed. [34] Until the NATO coalition is able to sever linkages between the terrorists and the natives, a repeat of the U. S. efeat in Vietnam War remains in prospect. This is an arduous task but nevertheless is in progress. It is thus clear that irrational elements of both sides (own and the native population) have to be part of the strategic and operational considerations in the 4GW. Without due considerations to pacify and buy-over the irrational elements will result in an unbalance trinity and ultimate defeat. Influence of the CoG in 4GW The wide recognition and various adaptations by various militaries of the CoG concept allow this paper to further examine on how this concept influenced the conduct of modern wars. If the current war in Afghanistan is a People’s War, like the paper has suggested, the native population becomes a logical focus. Indeed, the new strategy adopted by NATO since 2010 has placed the Afghan people as the CoG in this conflict. [35] Two of the main thrusts announced by NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis include the protection of the Afghan people and to conduct effective strategic communication to win their hearts and minds. [36] Correspondingly, the U. S. ’s Af-Pak strategy that is in effect since early 2009 also focuses on the protection of Afghan people as a top agenda. Over the past one year, U. S. counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts have been more deliberate in their intelligence gathering and analysis to ensure that the most appropriate actions are taken, even at the lowest tactical level. In essence, the enhanced intelligence work effectively supports the traditional hunt-the-enemy role and at the same time, prevents unnecessary collateral damage thereby keeping the population safe. [38] With this brief account of the coalition effort in Afghanistan, it suffices to show that tremendous energies from all levels are directed at the CoG. Therefore, it can be concluded that the CoG concept remains relevant in 4GW and once it is identified, it produces consequential downstream effects that influences operations at the operational and tactical levels. Relevance of Friction, Chance and Uncertainty in the Technological World While it was earlier noted that Clausewitz would not have envisaged the technological development of today, his arguments on the variables of war – friction, chance and uncertainty – had not been altered. In fact, the element of uncertainty has now been compounded by the introduction of a new dynamic variable – technology itself. The advancement of technology has brought about chain of effects, impacting the social, political, bureaucratic, managerial and psychological systems. All these caused a quantum jump in the complexity of warfare. [39] Correspondingly, this led to the increased specialization and compartmentalization of the military which in turn create internal friction. If the contact with chance creates friction, like what Clausewitz suggested, with the existing military technologies today that enable longer range communication and observation capabilities, the amount of contact with chance increases and hence friction from external sources. Take for instance, intelligence collection – with so much information that can be acquired with the use of today’s technology, that is far from being unreliable as during Clausewitz’s time, the commander may be overwhelmed and become paralyzed just by trying to sift the relevant data from the trivial ones. As Clausewitz put it, â€Å"We now know more, but this makes us more, not less uncertain. †[41] While technology today may have eradicated many of the old-time difficulties, it created new problems. Among the problems, include a tendency of over-reliance on technology which may hinder the development of intuition and readiness to accept risk,[42] the qualities of commander that are necessary to exploit chance and counter friction. Hence, in today’s military context, friction that arises from both external and internal sources should be dealt with.

An Article On Video Games Online - 956 Words

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Book Report Most Dangerous Game Written By Richard Connell

Survival is a theme seen throughout the four texts investigated. The so called definition of the word survival is â€Å"the state or fact of continuing to live or exist, typically in spite of an accident, ordeal, or difficult circumstances.† This definition changes a bit when you link it to the four texts. I believe survival is doing something out of the ordinary to survive an experience/event. Each text has a protagonist who is forced to survive an out of the ordinary moment whilst under significant stress and pressure. The four texts: Most Dangerous Game written by Richard Connell (Written text) - Hunger Games written by Suzanne Collins (Visual text) - Berlin Boxing Club written by Robert Sharenow (Written text) - Winter s Bone written by†¦show more content†¦Karl and Ree are both left to fend for themselves during points in the text, often having to look after siblings as well. Both came out alive, these events they have endured show their significant survival skil ls. Events such as Karl having to survive as a Jew during the Nazi Era is significant in itself, let alone keeping Hildy safe. Ree also had to play the adult role with her two younger siblings, as her parents were rather non-existent throughout the text. These particular quotes really show Ree’s attitude towards life and how it deteriorates. Originally Ree is a hopeful young woman and this shows in her responses, Sonny: â€Å"Maybe we should ask†, Ree: â€Å"Never ask for what oughta be offered†. Ree gives these words of wisdom to her brother, when he suggests asking their neighbors and relatives for food. Ree’s response shows a significant aspect of the Dolly family code that they live by. However Ree’s optimism deteriorates as she realises the situation is worsening, Megan: What are we ever gonna do with you, baby girl? Ree: Kill me I guess. Megan: That idea s been said already. Got any others? Ree: Help me. Nobody s said that idea yet, have they ? Ree’s response shows the scenario she now finds herself in, helpless and stressed. The extremities the two were under are shown when you ask yourself, could you survive without parents? In below average living conditions? During the Nazi eraShow MoreRelatedTop 1 Cause for Project Failure65023 Words   |  261 Pagesor requirements of a project) #8. Lack of Monitoring of Plan #9. Absence of a Project Management Methodology #10. Simple BAD LUCK :) You may feel free to chose any of the above and/or add a cause from your own experience that you think is the most recurring reason for project failure. Looking forward to sharing learning. [Mathew@PM4K] @ http://www.anishmathaimathew.blogspot.com Karl Kerr Project Planner at Knorr-Bremse Rail Systems UK Limited Anish, Read MoreDeveloping Management Skills404131 Words   |  1617 PagesSuzanne Duda Lead Media Project Manager: Denise Vaughn Full-Service Project Management: Sharon Anderson/BookMasters, Inc. Composition: Integra Software Services Printer/Binder: Edwards Brothers Cover Printer: Coral Graphics Text Font: 10/12 Weidemann-Book Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on appropriate page within text. Copyright  © 2011, 2007, 2005, 2002, 1998 Pearson Education, Inc., publishing as Prentice Hall, OneRead MoreStephen P. Robbins Timothy A. Judge (2011) Organizational Behaviour 15th Edition New Jersey: Prentice Hall393164 Words   |  1573 Pagesrecording, or likewise. To obtain permission(s) to use material from this work, please submit a written request to Pearson Education, Inc., Permissions Department, One Lake Street, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458, or you may fax your request to 201-236-3290. Many of the designations by manufacturers and sellers to distinguish their products are claimed as trademarks. Where those designations appear in this book, and the publisher was aware of a trademark claim, the designations have been printed in